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基于多成本分析的出发时刻选择模型研究

     

摘要

交通问题的解决,应该从需求和供给两方面进行改善.交通需求管理通过改变出行者的出发时刻、出行路径以及出行方式等措施,将高峰期的交通需求从时间和空间2个方面进行分离,从而有效缓解城市交通压力.文中将经济学思想应用于城市道路,从固定使用成本、出行时间成本以及惩罚费用成本3个方面研究了私人小汽车出行的多成本性,通过分析居民出发时刻选择的决策过程,应用随机用户均衡分配和Logit基本理论,建立了适用于一般城市网络的出发时刻选择模型.运用模型进行一个算例分析,从而验证模型的有效性和实用性.%Traffic problems should be solved from two aspects including demand and supply. Transportation demand management separates the peak traffic demand from two aspects including time and space by changing travelers' departure time, travel route and travel mode and other measures in order to alleviate the urban traffic pressure effectively. In this paper, the various costs of private car are analyzed from the costs of fixed use, costs of travel time and the costs of penalty based on the theories of economics. Then, the decision-making process of the travelers is analyzed. Furthermore, the model of the departure time choice for general city network is established by using the basic theories of stochastic user equilibrium and Logit. Finally, an example is analyzed by using the model to verify its effectiveness and practicality.

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