基于云模型的连续下降最后进近（CDFA）过程的安全裕度研究

摘要

It is particularly important to study the safety margin of the continuous descent final approach (CDFA) as it has been widely used in China.This study analyzes the safety margin of the key steps in the process of CDFA,and a safety evaluation model is developed.On the basis of the literature reviews,the safety marge of CDFA is analyzed for the following:normal conditions,abnormal conditions and exchange of aircrew.This study proposes an index system model based on the relationship between the workload of the aircrew and safety margin.The parameters of the cloud model are calculated according to the related algorithm of the cloud model,and a distribution map of the cloud model was developed using Matlab.The results show that the interval values of the cloud model for the aircrew exchange range from 4.76~8. 99 during the CDFA process,which is significantly higher than those under the normal conditions and abnormal condi-tions.Therefore,the workload of the pilots who implements CDFA process will significantly increase when the problems arise during the aircrew exchange process.%随着 CDFA 技术在我国民航运营中的广泛采用，对该技术的安全性研究显得尤为重要.本研究对 CDFA 过程中关键操作步骤的安全性进行分析，建立了 CDFA 安全裕度的评价模型，并运用云模型算法进行 CDFA 过程的安全性分析.在对国内外相关文献研究分析的基础上，分别对 CDFA过程中的常规状态、非常规状态和机组配合交流三方面的安全性进行了分析.根据机组成员工作负荷和安全裕度之间的关联性，建立指标体系评价模型.运用云模型算法，计算各项指标评价结果的云模型参数，并采用 Matlab 软件生成对应的云模型分布图.研究结果表明：连续进近过程中，机组配合交流问题的云分布介于4．76~8．99之间，明显高于常规和非常规状态下的云分布，因此当机组配合交流出现问题时，飞行员执行该过程的工作负荷会明显提高.