有效汇率变动对中国体育用品出口的动态影响——基于结构突变检验与TVP-VAR模型的实证分析

摘要

由于我国供给侧结构性改革与外部宏观经济因素的影响,有效汇率与体育用品出口等经济数据表现出明显的结构突变现象,一旦经济数据发生结构突变,传统的线性计量模型就会出现统计性偏误.利用2009年1月—2016年12月的月度数据,在综合宏观经济因素的基础上,首次运用结构突变检验与TVP-VAR模型,实证检验了有效汇率变动对中国体育用品出口的动态影响.结果表明:(1)有效汇率、体育用品出口以及经济增长在研究区间内均发生了结构突变,而且它们的突变点位置分别为2014年7月、2011年12月和012年1月;(2)从短期来看,有效汇率与体育用品出口互为正向引导作用,而从长期来看,有效汇率与体育用品出口互为负向引导作用;(3)在考虑结构突变的情况下,有效汇率的变动对体育用品出口的影响程度在不同阶段存在显著性差异,而后者对前者的影响程度在不同阶段不存在显著性差异.从以上结论出发,探讨了导致该结果的原因,并提出相应的政策建议,以应对有效汇率过度波动对体育用品出口产生的不利影响.%Due to the supply-side structural reform of our country and the impact of external macro-economic factors,the economic data such as effective ex-change rate and export of sporting goods show obvious structural mutations.When the structure of economic data changes suddenly,the traditional linear mea-surement model will appear statistical bias.Based on the comprehensive macro-economic factors,this paper used the monthly data from January 2009 to Decem-ber 2016,and applied the structural mutation test and TVP-VAR model to test the dynamic effect between the effective exchange rate fluctuation and the export of Chinese sporting goods.We found:(1)Effective exchange rate,export of sporting goods,and economic growth had experienced structural mutations in the study interval,and their mutations were July 2014,December 2011,and January 2012,respectively.(2)In the short term,the effective exchange rate and the ex-port of sporting goods were positive for each other;in the long term,they were negative for each other.(3)In the case of considering structural mutation,changes in effective exchange rates had significant differences on the export of sporting goods at different stages,while the latter had no significant differences on the for-mer at different stages.Finally,in order to cope with the adverse effects of excess exchange rate on the export of sporting goods,this paper also explored the causes of the results and puts forward some suggestions.