从风险投资案例中整理发现内在变化规律，有助于把握投资方向和路径。以2001—2011年全球投资公司每轮平均投资数据为例，由于数据不具备正态性和方差齐次性，基于秩估计方差分析，结果表明，各年之间均值存在显著差异。假设平均投资服从伽玛分布，其形状参数和尺度参数是年份的二次函数，基于向量广义线性模型估计各参数。最后预测2015年伽玛分布形状参数为1．1959，尺度参数为5816．186。风险投资位于任何区间的概率都可以通过分布函数计算。%It’s very important to find the rule of inherence and internal relationship from the case of risk investment , then venture capital investors can see clearly of the investment trend as well as the regarding detailed information .Take, for in-stance, the data of average investment amount of all the funds in the world follows neither the normality assumption nor the homogeneity of variance .We used“analysis of variance estimation of rank” to prove the significant difference of average in-vestment by each fund among each year .Assuming the average investment follow the rule of Gamma distribution , and the form parameter and scale parameter are quadratic function of year parameter , we can estimate each parameter based on model of generalized linear vector .Finally we forecasted the form parameter of Gamma distribution of 2015 is 1.1959 , and scale parameter of Gamma distribution of 2015 is 5816.186 .The probabiting of the investment in any interval can be calcu-lated by distribution function .
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