基于灰度预测的秦皇岛市垃圾总量及旅游旺季垃圾峰值预测

摘要

本文通过建立多元线性回归模型,对2011-2017年秦皇岛市城市区年垃圾总量进行研究,实证结果表明,非农业户籍总人口和七、八两月份接待游客总人数对城市区年垃圾总量有显著影响.现依据已有的历史数据,建立灰色GM(1,1)模型,对2018-2022年秦皇岛市城市区年垃圾总量和每年七、八月份的垃圾产生量进行预测,并根据预测结果提出五年内无需新建垃圾处理焚烧厂、通过垃圾分类降低垃圾处理焚烧量、建立旅游旺季垃圾处理应急体系的建议,为开展垃圾处理工作提供参考.%Researching on annual total waste at the city proper in Qinhuangdao from 2011 to2017, through multiple linear regression model, the case study has proved that the total nonagricultural population and the total tourists have significant influence on the total waste output.And according to historical data, the paper, constructing gray GM (1.1) model, has made forecast on the total waste and the waste output in July and August from 2018 to 2022.Meanwhile, based on the prediction results, the paper puts forward that it is unnecessary to build the waste disposal plant and offers the scientific basis and reference to the waste emergency response through garbage sorting decreasing solid waste incineration.