人民币均衡汇率与失调实证分析——基于NATREX模型

摘要

After researching RMB equilibrium exchange rate based on the NATREX model during the year 1981 to 2009 and calculating the amplitude of exchange rate misalignment, this paper draws a conclusion that the RMB has generally been undervalued since the opening reform. Therefore, it is time to take RMB exchange rate mechanism ieform, which is the fundamental interest for China. Although it will put pressure to the weak competitive industries and enterprises in the short term, appropriate upward the RMB exchange rate will benefit China's macro-economy, enterprises and people's lives in the long term. for macroeconomic and financial inarket stability, China should take active action on the RMB exchange rate management and regulation to maintain the exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level and to promote basic balance of international payments.%基于NATREX自然均衡汇率理论对1981-2009年间人民币的均衡汇率研究，并通过与历年实际汇率的比较计算出汇率错位的幅度的实证数据验证得出结论：改革开放以来，人民币价值总体上是低估的。因此．人民币汇率形成机制改革符合我国的根本利益，适当上调人民币汇率水平虽然在短期内对一些竞争力比较弱的行业和企业产生调整的压力，从总体上看对我国宏观经济、企业和人民生活的影响是有利的，我国应积极主动的对人民币汇率进行管理和调节，维护汇率的正常浮动，保持汇率在合理，均衡水平上的基本稳定，促进国际收支基本平衡。维护宏观经济和金融市场的稳定。