鉴于通过物流业发展来解释我国区域经济发展这一主题存在的一些不足，文章在综述相关研究的基础上提出了二者之间存在非线性关系的观点。利用门槛回归模型，分别以铁路和高速公路路网密度作为交通基础设施门槛变量，证实了其在物流业提升区域经济发展水平这一运行机制上存在着非线性的调节作用。研究结果表明：2004-2013年间，铁路基础设施作为门槛，二者作用机制表现出了“由强转弱”的相关关系；高速公路基础设施作为门槛，二者作用机制表现出了显著的“倒U”型相关关系；在发展低水平阶段，铁路作为物流业的主要运输方式，对区域经济影响作用强大，随后作用逐渐减弱；公路在中等水平阶段明显高于低水平阶段；在其高水平发展阶段，促进作用略低于中等水平阶段。由于交通基础设施门槛效应的存在，文章建议应系统、动态地看待我国交通基础设施作用和因地制宜地制定物流业发展政策，推动区域经济的有效发展。%In view of the defects in the explanation of development of regional economy in China from the angles of logistics development, the paper proposes that there is a non-linear relationship between the logistics and regional economy on the basis of the review articles on the research. It confirms the non-linear relationship by panel threshold mode with the railway and highway transportation infrastructure network density as the threshold variable. The results show that during the period of 2004-2013, with rail infrastructure as the threshold, the two mechanisms exhibit " from strong to weak" correlation. With highway infrastructure as a threshold, the two mechanisms exhibit significant" invert U" -type relationship. In low stage of the development, as the main mode of transport logistics industry, railway has great influence on the regional economy and then the role gradually weakens with transportation development. Highway in the middle level has significantly higher effect than that in the low stage and in its high level of development stage , and it is lower than the middle level stage. Because of the effect of transport infrastructure threshold, the paper puts forward such suggestions as using systematic, dynamic view about the role of transport infrastructure and making the development policy of logistics industry adapted to local conditions in order to promote the development of the regional economy.
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