人口结构、城乡消费差距动态演进与门槛效应

摘要

文章通过收集2007-2016年中国31个省、市、自治区人口结构和城乡消费差距的面板数据,利用核密度估计描绘人口结构与城乡消费差距的动态演进特征,进一步建立人口结构对城乡消费差距影响双门槛模型,探悉在不同区域经济发展水平和产业结构高级化水平的条件下,人口结构对城乡消费差距的影响.研究显示在考察样本期间,抚养比呈现先下降再上升的趋势,中国省际人口抚养比不存在两极分化现象;城乡消费差距值持续下降,城乡消费差距在各省之间的差异变化趋势呈现倒"N"型特征;人口结构对我国城乡消费差距产生的影响存在显著的门槛特征,人口结构对城乡消费差距的影响随着经济发展水平的提高而显著减弱,随着产业结构高级化水平的提高而增强;人均固定资产投资、人口素质、教育投入对缩小城乡消费差距发挥着积极的作用,外商投资促使城乡消费差距逐渐扩大,科技投入对城乡消费差距的影响不显著.%In this paper, by collecting panel data of the population structure and the urban-rural consumption inequality from 2007 to 2016 in 31 provinces, province-level municipalities or autonomous regions in China, we first obtained dynamic evolution characteri-stics by using the kernel density estimation method. Then, we established double threshold model which is used to represent the effect from population structure.Finally, we analyzed the effect on urban-rural consumption inequality from population structure under the co-ndition in different regional economy and industrial structure.The study results show that population dependency ratio during the sampling period does not exist polarization.The difference of urban-rural consumption inequality shows the inverted"N"type characteristics, while the urban-rural consumption inequality declined.The population structure has a significant threshold effect on the urban-rural consump-tion inequality. The influence is significantly weakened with the improvement of economic development level and strenthened with the enhancement of the level of industrial structuring.The influences from fixed assets investment per capita, population quality and education investment have a positive effect on narrowing the urban-rural consumption inequality, foreign investment aggravated the inequality, and the impact of investment in science and technology on the urban-rural consumption inequality is not significant.