基于组合模型的兵团农产品物流市场需求预测

摘要

本文通过对兵团农产品物流发展现状的分析,找出其存在的问题和制约因素,在此基础上,以兵团具有代表性的9种农产品为研究对象,利用灰色模型和BP神经网络分别预测兵团农产品物流需求量,并利用两种模型的预测结果,建立组合模型,进行组合预测,对精确预测兵团农产品物流市场需求具有一定的实际意义.%Through analyzing the development status of corps' agricultural product logistics, this paper finds out the existing problems and restricting factors.Basing on that, by utilizing two kinds of methods: Grey Model and BP neural network, this paper uses nine representatives of Corps' agricultural products as studying objects to predict Corps' agricultural products logistics demand, and then uses the results from the above two methods to set up combined model to do combination forecasting, which has a certain practical significance to precisely predict Corps' agricultural products logistics demand.