基于灰色线性组合模型的农产品物流需求预测

摘要

To investigate the agricultural logistics demand of Beijing,this paper builds a grey linear combination model by adopting the ant colony algorithm to find the weight of a single model with matlab and the GM(1,1)model.Based on the grey linear combination model,the paper predicts the demand of Beijing agricultural products logistics during the 13th Five-Year Plan.The results indicate that the agricultural products logistics demand of Beijing will increase steadily during the 13th Five-Year Plan.Therefore,it is argued that,in order to balance the supply and demand of Beij ing agricul-tural products logistics,the supply of agricultural products should be increased by improving the agri-cultural products logistics infrastructure construction,supporting the development of agricultural product logistics enterprises,and strengthening the government macro-control.The research also proves that the grey linear combination model shows a better fitting degree,evidently outweighing the other traditional models.%以北京市农产品物流需求为研究对象,采用灰色 GM(1,1)模型为基本方法,使用 Matlab 软件,借助蚁群算法求出了单个模型的权数,构建出灰色线性组合模型,对"十三五"时期北京市农产品的物流需求进行预测。研究发现：北京市农产品物流需求在"十三五"期间稳定增加。因此,要平衡"十三五"期间北京市农产品物流的供给与需求,应增加农产品物流的供给,即完善农产品物流基础设施建设、大力支持农产品物流企业的发展和政府加强宏观调控。预测的结果表明：灰色线性组合模型的拟合度较好,比其他传统方法有更高的预测精度。