销售努力下基于CVaR的供应链协调

摘要

运用条件风险价值(CVaR)方法考察了零售商风险规避并实施销售努力下供应链的契约协调问题.检验了数量折扣契约、数量折扣与收益共享的契约组合、数量折扣与回购的契约组合这三种契约机制的可协调性,研究表明,当销售努力不可证实时,第一种契约只能协调零售商风险中性的供应链,后两种契约能协调零售商的风险规避程度低于某一临界值的供应链,且相互等价.分析了销售努力的可证实性对契约协调的影响,结果表明:销售努力的不可证实减小了供应链被协调的可能性.最后提供了两个具体契约,无论销售努力可证实与否,它们均能协调不过于规避风险的供应链.%This paper applies CVaR method to study supply chain coordination with a risk-averse retailer exerting sales effort.It examines the coordinability of three contracts:quantity discount contract,quantity discount contract coupled with revenue sharing contract,and quantity discount contract mixed with buyback contract.The first contract can only coordinate risk neutral supply chains with unverifiable sales effort.The latter two contracts,equivalent to each other,can perfectly coordinate supply chains if the retailer's risk aversion degree is below a certain threshold.Furthermore,it analyzes the impact of the verifiability of sales effort on supply chain coordination,and showes that the unverifiability of the sales effort reduces the likelihood to achieve channel coordination by contracts.Finally,it provides two specific contracts to achieve the not-toorisk-averse supply chains,whether or not the retailer's sales effort can be confirmed.