跨国供应链汇率波动风险的中断管理策略分析

摘要

从供应链整体出发研究汇率波动环境下跨国供应链中一个居于主导地位的批发商在国内采购商品销售到国外时所面临的运营决策问题.基于中断管理的基本思想,比较了供应链应对汇率波动的三种主要策略:批发商维持原计划不变,批发商单独应对以及供应链协同应对.研究发现:在汇率波动比较小时,维持原计划不变是最好的选择;在汇率波动比较大(尤其是减少比较大)时,供应链协同应对可以取得很好的效果.出乎意料的发现无论汇率波动幅度如何,批发商单独应对策略对供应链的整体表现损害都很大,因此最不可取.%From the view of supply chains,this paper studies the operational decisions of a wholesaler,who occupies a leading position in supply chains,when buying goods directly from domestic supplier and selling them to foreign retailers under exchange-rate fluctuation.Based on the disruption management theory,this paper compares three main strategies in dealing with the fluctuations:the wholesaler maintaining the original plan,the wholesaler meeting the challenge alone and the supply chain responding to the fluctuation coordinately.This paper finds that the first strategy is the best choice when exchange-rate have relatively small fluctuation.The third strategy has a good performance under a great fluctuation (especially when the exchange-rate reduces more).At last,this paper finds that the second strategy is harmful to the whole supply chain,no matter how the exchange-rate fluctuates,so it is the worst choice.