大气环流模式（GCMs）在东南诸河流域的适用性评价

摘要

采用秩评分方法，选取NCEP再分析资料作为“实测”依据，以10个统计特征值为基础，评估了21个GCMs对东南诸河流域17个气候要素的模拟效果．结果显示：气候变量表现出不同的统计特征，GCMs对不同气候变量的模拟效果并不一致．与地面气象站点实测值对比，CSIRO：MK30、GFDL：CM21、GFDL：CM20、INM：CM30对降水和地面气温的模拟效果相对较好；流域高空气候要素的模拟效果更佳的模式有CGCM2．3．2、GISS：EH、BCCR：BCM20、GFDL：CM20对；综合所有气候变量，BCCR：BCM20、GFDL：CM20、CGCM2．3．2、GISS：EH的表现更优．优选出的GCMs可以为东南诸河流域气候变化的进一步研究提供科学依据．%Based on ten statistical characteristics and compared with NCEP Re-analysis Data, a score- based multi-criteria method is employed to evaluate the performance of 21 GCMs in simulating 17 cli- matic elements in the basins distributed in southeastern China. Results show that different climate var- iables represent a variety of statistical characteristics. The simulation abilities of 21 GCMs are not con- sistent with climate elements. For the ground variables, CSIRO ： MK30, GFDL ： CM2I, GFDL ： CM20 and INM ： CM30 show a better performance in simulating precipitation and ground temperature. While the better models in generating high-altitude variables are CGCM2.3.2, GISS ： EH, BCCR ： BCM20 and GFDL. Considering all climate elements, BCCR ： BCM20, GFDL ： CM20, CGCM2. 3.2 and GISS ： EH perform better, comprehensively. The optimization of GCMs could pro- vide a scientific basis for further study of climate change in study area.