人口结构转变、农业经济增长与农村居民消费

摘要

Using the provincial panel data in rural China from 2001 to 2012, this paper inspects the effect of demographic structure transition , agricultural economic growth and the effect of their interaction on rural residents'consumption .Conclusion of this study shows that the drop in the young dependent ratio has remarkable negative effects on residents'consumption , the rise in old dependent ratio has non-signifi-cant positive effects on residents'consumption , and the current demographic structure transition in rural areas will be contributed to promoting rural residents'consumption; The growth of agricultural economy will be contributed to promoting the level of rural residents'consumption , and this contribution is strengthened following the decrease of young dependent ratio , but it is gradually weakened following the rise of the old dependent ratio .%利用2001至2012年中国农村省级面板数据，考察了人口结构转变、农业经济增长以及它们的交互作用对农村居民消费的影响。研究结论表明：少儿抚养比下降对农村居民消费产生显著负向影响，而老人抚养系数升高对农村居民消费具有不显著的正向影响，当前农村人口结构转变将有助于提升农村居民消费；农业经济的增长将有利于提升农村居民消费水平，其对居民消费上升的贡献会随着少儿抚养比的下降而被强化，但随着老人抚养比的上升逐步被弱化。