人口偏好结构转变、人口质量红利与农业发展：以中国东部地区为例

摘要

The transform of rural population preference structure caused by industrialization and urbanization accelerated the agriculture development mode changing. The promotion of rural human capital level prepares the opportunity for population quantity dividend agriculture turning into population quality dividend agriculture. The eastern region which is the most eco-nomically developed in China is under the background that the change of population preference structure in the rural. Human capital has positive effects on agricultural growth but lower than modern physical capital. Agriculture development is still rely-ing on material capital Dividend in Eastern region. Along with the industrialization and urbanization advancing ,the rural pop-ulation quality preference has been strengthening,the agriculture development mode will take lead to achieve the population quality dividend in Eastern region.%由工业化、城市化引致的农村人口偏好结构转变加速农业发展模式转变，农村人力资本水平提升为农业由人口数量红利型向人口质量红利型发展带来新的契机。作为内地经济最发达的东部地区在农村人口偏好结构正在发生转变的背景下，人力资本虽对农业增长具有正向作用但低于现代物质资本的贡献，东部地区农业发展仍依赖物质资本红利。随着工业化和城市化的持续推进，农村人口质量偏好进一步得到强化，东部地区将率先实现人口质量红利型农业发展模式。