我国城镇化进程中居民消费变动趋势与持续性--基于供给与需求冲击的视角

摘要

城镇化进程中保持居民消费需求持续性是提高我国经济增长质量、顺利实现城镇化建设的重要条件，中国经济增长动力之一在于城镇化进程中居民消费的持久性。利用我国1989—2013年的实际经济数据，基于5个经济变量建立结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型，估计出5类冲击在不同时期对我国居民消费需求变动的影响，进一步研究我国居民消费需求的动态演进规律及其内在机理，探讨城镇化进程中如何从5类外部根本冲击出发保持我国居民消费需求的持久性。实证结果表明，正向的个人对未来不确定性预期变化冲击、货币冲击和需求冲击，最终均导致我国居民消费率得到提高，而正向的供给冲击和价格冲击导致我国居民消费率下降。因此，城镇化进程中要充分利用积极冲击对居民消费的正向影响，避免消极冲击对居民消费的负向影响。%The persistence of consumer demand in the process of China ’s urbanization is important for the quality of economic growth, and it is the important driving force for China ’s economic growth. In this paper, using data from 1989 to 2013, we establish structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model on the basis of five economic variables, and we use this model to estimate the effects of five types of shock in different periods of changing consumer demands. We further explore the influence of the five types of shocks on the persistence of consumer demand in the process of urbanization. The results show that shocks related to the positive individual expectations of future uncertainties, monetary conditions and demand fluctuations have increased China ’s consumption rate, but the positive shocks related to supply fluctuations and consumer goods prices have decreased China’s consumption rate. Therefore, we suggest that it is important to take full advantage of the positive impacts and to avoid the negative impacts in the process of urbanization.