房地产价格波动对金融稳定的影响效应

摘要

运用VAR模型与GARCH模型,从均值和波动两个层面检验我国房地产价格波动对金融稳定的影响效应.研究结果表明,房地产价格增长率与房地产价格增长率的波动对金融稳定都会产生影响,房地产的市场风险能够传播于金融体系内部,而金融稳定的变化也影响着房地产价格的波动程度.%By using VAR model and GARCH model, the effect of real estate price fluctuation on financial stability in China is tested from two aspects of mean and fluctuation.The results show that the real estate price growth rate and the fluctuation of real estate price growth rate will have an impact on financial stability, the risk of real estate market can spread to the internal financial system, and the change of financial stability also affects the volatility of real estate prices.