支线机场安全动态预警技术研究

摘要

How to promote management ability of regional airport safety and security is the major problem which China regional airports will face in the future. In order to control the safety and security risk in regional airport operation, a series of dynamic risk early warning technology were put forward in this paper. Based on the safety and security risk management theory, a three dimensions hazard identification model was put forward. In this model,the hazards which the regional airports are facing could be identified by time, space and logistic dimension. Hazard identification in time dimension referred to analyze regional airport running process and identify the risk factor in these process. Hazard identification in spatial dimension refers to identify the risk factor in the spatial composition of regional airport. Hazard identification in the logical dimension was to establish management, personnel, equipment and environment hierarchical evaluation model by analyzing the risk factors in management, man, machine and media. By using this model, the hazards which the regional airports are facing could be identified more comprehensive. The multi-dimension characteristics of the risk were also introduced, such as the likehood, consequence,predictability and the controllability into regional airports risk analysis procedure. The multi-dimension risk assessment model could reflect the effect of risk response measures and give more systematic and comprehensively evaluation for the risk factor. By using these techniques, the hazards which the regional airport are facing could be identified comprehensively and dynamically, which will help improve the risk early warning technology for regional airport.%提升支线机场安全管理能力是中国支线机场未来发展面临的一个重大问题,为提高我国支线机场安全管理水平,本文基于系统动态的风险管理思想,针对支线机场安全风险发生随机、动态和系统的特点,结合支线机场安全管理实践,构建了支线机场三维风险识别图,以时间维为主线,空间维为基础,逻辑维为依据,多层次地识别支线机场面临的风险,以提高支线机场风险识别结果的客观性和全面性;将风险概率、风险损失、风险可预测性、风险可控制性纳入了支线机场安全风险分析过程,构建了支线机场安全多维风险评价函数,从而能更系统、全面地对支线机场面临的各种风险因素进行评价;通过上述支线机场风险管理技术的应用,可提高对支线机场安全风险的辨别、分析和控制能力,达到对支线机场安全风险进行实时、动态监控的预警日标,进而减少支线机场安全风险的潜在损失.