基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析在石油化工装置中的应用

摘要

工艺危害分析强调运用系统的方法对危害进行辨识、分析,并采取必要的措施消除和减少危害.HAZOP分析能对工艺过程非常系统、全面的进行分析,但传统的HAZOP分析在量化风险时,对于偏差原因发生的可能性评价存在较大的主观性.本文对于没有统计资料的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生可能性,采用专家打分法,利用三角模糊数来表示其模糊发生概率.对于有统计资料的偏差原因,直接表示成三角模糊数.这种方法能够很好的表示HAZOP分析偏差发生概率.介绍了基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析步骤,并在石油化工装置中进行了应用.这对HAZOP分析技术在石油化工装置中的推广具有重要意义.%Process hazard analysis stresses the use of systematic approach to identify hazards, analyze hazards, and take the necessary measures to eliminate and reduce hazards. HAZOP can analyze petrochemical process systems very systematicly and comprehensively, but the traditional HAZOP analysis does not assess the size of the risk. For no statistical data of the deviation for HAZOP analysis, using expert scoring method, represented the fuzzy probability with triangular fuzzy numbers. For statistical data of the deviation for HAZOP analysis, according to industry data , corporate experience and corporate risk analysis, the accident statistics database of HAZOP risk analysis was established. It could be expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers directly. This approach could well reflect the probability of deviation for HAZOP analysis. Accordingly the HAZOP risk analysis based on fuzzy numbers was applied in the petrochemical plant. In this paper the HAZOP anslysis steps based on triangular fuzzy numbers were descibed and the HAZOP analysis based on triangular fuzzy numerals was applied in the petrochemical plant. Based on the probability of the deviation reasons and the severity of the deviation consequences, the risk level was determined, and the risk of the deviation was obtained using the risk matrix. This has great significance for the promotion of HAZOP technique in the petrochemical plant.