近年来航运耗油产生的CO2排放量很大，发展液化天然气替代原有船舶动力成为需要。在中国天然气开发应用较晚，试点改造船舶存在安全隐患。分析了危险事件的一般导致原因，确定危害影响因子对改造船舶的设计和操作有指导作用。基于个人风险，分析了各类事故发生概率，选择了合适的后果模型，考察了长江气象条件，以芜湖某试点改造船进行了定量风险计算，得到了个人风险等值线，确定船体距离河道两边高敏感或特殊高密度场所不应小于20m，指出改用天然气作为船舶燃料后满足安全推荐标准要求。%In recent years ,due to a great deal of CO 2 emission in navigation ,developing the technology of replacing oil with LNG as the fuel becomes necessary .In China ,natural gas is developed and used later .There are some hid-den hazards in pilot rebuilt ships .Usual factors leading to hazardous events are analyzed .It is instructive to the re-built ship for designation and operation by determining the hazardous factors .Basic to individual risk ,all kinds of accident probabilities are analyzed and proper computational models are chosen .Some a Wuhu pilot rebuilt ship is taken to compute the risk with the Yangtze River meteorological condition .Individual risk isoline is achieved .Make sure that it can ’ t be under 20 meters from the ship to high sensitive or high population place beside the river .It in-dicates that it meets the safety standard after replacing oil with LNG as the fuel .
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