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FTA -AHP 方法研究及应用

     

摘要

事故树方法由于故障率数据的缺失无法准确确定各基本事件对顶上事件的影响度,工程应用中难以确定安全措施重点与优先顺序。将FTA-AHP结合起来,先用事故树做定性分析,得到最小割集和最小径集,画出等效事故树,然后以事故类型作为目标层,最小割集或最小径集作为准则层,各基本事件作为指标层因素,引入专家打分法构建判断矩阵,获得指标层因素(基本事件)对目标层(事故)的影响顺序,从而得到基本事件对顶上事件影响程度与顺序。将该方法应用于分析发生频率高的建筑工程高处坠落事故,研究结果表明,利用FTA-AHP方法所获得的分析结果更加符合工程实际,高处坠落事故防范重点明确,拟采取的安全措施优先顺序合理,有利于指导制定科学合理的防范高处坠落事故的安全措施。%Fault tree analysis ( FTA) is a method that can be used effectively to find the logical relationship be-tween accident and its causes , but can ’ t be used to further their relationship due to the lack of failure rate , which make it difficult to determine the key point and the priority of the measurements , while the analytic hierarchy process ( AHP) method can be used to calculate the weight of the each level ’ s factors and then sequence by the size based on the orderly division of each factor , the order of alternative option ’ s relative importance can be a-chieved based on the judgments of some people concerned .It was attempted to combine FTA with AHP to analyze some accident.Firstly, the minimum cutsets,minimal path-sets and the equivalent tree were achieved based on the qualitative analysis .Then the accident was taken as the target layer , the minimum cutsets or the path-sets were taken as the criterion layer , and the basic event was taken as the index layer factors .Lastly, the effects of the index layer factors(the basic event) upon the target layer(accident) was determined based on the judgment matrix con-structed by the scores given by experts .The FTA-AHP method was applied to analyze the high falling accident which occurs frequently on construction .The results showed that , the analytical results achieved by FTA-AHP which is draw closer together to engineering reality and contribute to establish scientific reasonable precautions .

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