基于Gompertz曲线的石油库罐区火灾灭火剂供应量预测

摘要

石油库罐区火灾的成功扑救依赖于灭火剂量的充足供应.结合火灾发展阶段特点,发现火灾中灭火剂供应量发展规律基本符合Gompertz曲线.于是,在对火场扑救力量作战能力分析的基础上,以灭火剂使用量为标准,对作战能力进行量化分析,将量化数值和时间段编号作为基础数据,建立Gompertz趋势预测模型.利用预测模型对石油库罐区类火灾灭火剂供应量进行预测,排除了人为估算的盲目性,避免灭火剂调用“供过于求”的现象.%The success of oil tank fire fighting depends on the adequate supply of extinguishing agent.Combined with the characteristics of fire development stage,it was found that the law of development for the fire extinguishing agent supply in line with the Gompertz curve.Thus,based on the analysis of fire fighting forces capability,taking the amount of extinguishing agent as standard,the combat capability was quantitatively analyzed,and the Gompertz model was established to predict the dosage.It can exclude human estimates of bhndness,and avoid extinguishing agent oversupply.