基于主成分分析法的液体管道泄漏后果综合评价模型

摘要

Based on principle component analysis and consequences model , a comprehensive evaluation model for the consequence of petrochemical pipeline leakage accident was proposed .Leakage consequence of petrochemical pipeline was divided into 14 indexes in three kinds , including fire accident , explosion accident and intoxication ac-cident, to build a consequence indicator system .The principle component analysis was used to get comprehensive evaluation model in which each index ( PCA) of evaluation model was independent of each other on the basic of consequence analog calculation of VCE to get original data and the data was processed by SPSS software .A Wharf of Tianjin port was selected as the studying object , and the method was used to evaluate 15 typical liquid dangerous chemicals which were stored and transported on the port , the comprehensive evaluation value of various chemicals and the rank of leakage risk were given in the end .The results showed that this method is suitable for the evaluation of ports and other industries with storage and transportation of various liquid dangerous chemicals .%基于主成分分析和后果评价模型，提出了一种液体管道泄漏后果综合评价方法。将液体管道泄漏后果划分为火灾、爆炸和中毒3大类14个基本指标，建立后果评价指标体系。在VCE等后果模拟计算的基础上得到初始数据，运用SPSS软件处理相关数据，使用主成分分析法得到各指标相互独立的综合评价模型。选择天津港某码头进行实例分析，运用该方法对该港口储运的15类有代表性液体危险化学品进行综合评价，得到了各化学品的综合评价值以及按照其发生泄漏后危险性大小的排序。结果表明，该方法适用于评价港口码头等储运多种液体危险化学品的行业。