The underground empty area caused by mining activity often causes the surface subsidence. In order to ensure production safety and provide a calculation basis of surface influence range, the probability integral method was used to predict the surface influence range of a mine which would expand mining boundary with downward ce-ment filling method. Based on the knowledge about ore body form of nine prospecting lines in this mine, the basic information such as buried depth, dip angle, and occurrence of ore body were obtained from the graphs. To provide a more objective and correct calculation data, the thinner ore body and pointed parts were processed appropriately. The surface movement boundary and monitoring range were determined by probability integral method with taking the magnitude of surface subsidence value as reference standard, and the tilt, curvature and horizontal strain were calculated to judge whether the surface buildings were located in the safety zone. It showed that the surrounding surface houses were all existing in the safety area and out the surface moving boundary, so the expanding mining had less effect on the surface. It can provide reference and suggestions for similar projects.%矿山开采活动形成的地下空区往往会对地表造成一定的影响，为确保矿山的安全生产并提供地表影响范围计算的科学依据，现根据某铁矿采用下向胶结充填法采矿需进行扩界开采的工程实际，将该矿的地表影响范围运用概率积分法进行预测。在已知该矿9条勘探线矿体形状的基础上，根据图件可得矿体的埋深、倾角、产状等基础资料，对于较薄矿体以及尖灭部位需做适当的处理，提供更为客观正确的计算数据。以地表沉陷数值的大小为参考标准运用概率积分法计算出地表移动边界和需监测范围，并计算倾斜、曲率和水平应变判断地表建筑物是否位于安全区。可得矿区周边房屋均处于安全区内和地表移动边界之外，扩界开采对地表影响较小，为同类工程提供参考和建议。
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