化工过程定量风险评价进展及风险准则比较分析

摘要

To study the progress in quantitative risk assessment of chemical process,and carry out the comparative analysis of risk criteria,the development status of quantitative risk assessment in several countries were analyzed from three aspects of the source of method,the progress of laws and regulations,and the development of software technology through hackling the development history of quantitative risk assessment. The similarities and differences of risk criteria in each country were ana-lyzed combining with the comparative results of the individual and societal acceptable risk criteria in UK,Netherlands,Unit-ed States and China. In addition,the criteria contents of chemical process safety control in Germany and Japan were illustra-ted. The results showed that the quantitative risk assessment technology in China started relatively late,but the formulation of implementation guidelines and risk criteria and the development of assessment software reflected that the development of the method and theory system on quantitative risk assessment in China was relatively complete.%为了研究化工过程定量风险评价进展以及对风险准则进行比较分析,通过梳理定量风险评价的发展历程,从方法来源、法律法规进展以及软件技术发展3个方面,逐一分析各国的发展情况,并结合英国、荷兰、美国与中国个人和社会可接受风险准则的比较结果,分析各国风险准则的异同.此外,阐述了德国和日本化工过程安全控制的准则内容.结果表明:我国定量风险评价技术起步相对较晚,但实施导则、风险准则的制定以及评价软件的开发,标志着我国定量风险评价方法理论体系的发展较为完备.