城市埋地管道占压风险评估实用方法研究

摘要

To improve the accuracy and practicability of occupying risk assessment on buried pipelines under the condition of incomplete information, a practical method for occupying risk assessment of urban buried pipelines was established by using the attribute hierarchical model (AHM) and the mathematical statistics method.Taking the gas pipelines as example, seven types of influencing factor on the hidden occupying danger of urban buried gas pipeline were analyzed, and their corresponding evaluation indexes were analyzed also.The weights of each influencing factor and its evaluation index were determined by using the attribute hierarchical model, and the weight combination value of each influencing factor and its corresponding subordinate evaluation indexes was used to represent the occupying risk of urban buried gas pipeline.The probability density distribution curve and the cumulative density curve of occupying risk were obtained using mathematical statistics method, then the grade interval of occupying risk was determined.The results of practical example application showed that the evaluation results by this method were in line with that of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method.But the risk was represented by the weight combination value and the uncertainty factors were represented by probability, so the method is simple and practical relatively, and the results are more scientific and reliable.%为提高不完备信息条件下城市埋地管道占压风险评估的准确性和实用性,综合运用属性层次模型(AHM)和数理统计方法,建立了城市埋地管道占压风险评估实用方法.以燃气管道为例,分析燃气埋地管道占压隐患的7类影响因子及其对应评价指标,利用属性层次模型确定各影响因子及其评价指标的权重,各影响因子与其对应下属评价指标的权重组合值表示城市燃气埋地管道占压风险;采用数理统计方法估计占压风险的概率密度分布曲线和累积密度曲线,确定评定城市燃气埋地管道占压风险等级区间.上述方法实例应用的结果表明,该方法与模糊综合法的评价结果基本相符,但该方法考虑了权重组合值表征风险和用概率表征不确定性因素,方法较为简便实用,结果更加科学可靠.