碳排放控制与经济增长的双重挑战使中国经济增长方式选择成为令人关注的热点问题。从经济规模与碳排放量的关系来看，经济增长呈现出绿色增长、棕色增长和黑色增长等三种方式。本文利用1971-2010年中国碳排放与经济增长时间序列数据和数理分析方法，分析了中国近40年经济增长方式的演变。其中，1971-1977年总体为黑色增长，1978-2001年总体为棕色增长，2002-2004年间为黑色增长，2005-2010年又进入棕色增长阶段，中国经济增长方式转变和绿色增长目标仍有待努力。依据碳排放量与经济增长的Granger因果检验结果，短期内，中国经济增长与碳排放互为因果，经济粗放型增长特征显著；但从长期看来，经济增长并不是碳排放的原因。经济增长速度与碳排放强度下降之间的关系要求中国应权衡好经济增长与碳减排目标的实现。对此，本文认为中国应积极参与国际碳减排，并加快技术创新、要素创新、管理创新和市场创新，通过创新驱动实现经济增长方式的转变。%Achieving dual goals of economic growth and carbon emission reduction is a major issue in China. In this paper we deifne three economic growth patterns (green growth, brown growth and black growth) according to the relationship between economic scale and carbon emissions, and then trace the historical trajectory of economic growth over the last 40 years. Granger causality is used to test China’s economic growth and carbon emission linkage. We argue that green growth means that the rate of carbon emission reduction is faster than the increase in GDP. When carbon intensity reduction is slower than GDP growth, brown growth occurs. Black growth occurs when both carbon intensity and economic scale increase. For China, we denote the four periods of black growth (1971–1977), brown growth (1978–2001), black growth (2002–2004), and brown growth (2004–2010). Granger causality tests indicate that mutual causality between carbon emissions and economic growth exists in the short term, but not the long term. In order to achieve the goals of economic growth and carbon intensity reduction, it is necessary for China to actively participate in global carbon reduction activities, technological innovation and ecological civilization construction.
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