民间金融利率的计量模型探索

摘要

分析了民间金融利率的影响因素，并利用计量经济学方法建立定量模型。以温州地区的数据进行实证研究发现，利用简单线性方程构建的民间金融利率因素影响模型，其拟合程度不高，且变量未通过检验。之后尝试利用 Cobb-Dauglas 生产函数的形式改进模型，并以相同数据给出实证研究，结果显示其各项指标均有所改善，效果较好。结论表明，民间金融的高利率主要受正规金融机构的贷款利率和贷款余额的影响，并且不是简单的线性方式，而是呈现出 C-D 生产函数的形式。%This paper analyzes the factors that influence private financial interest and use econometric methods to establish quantitative models.The data in Wenzhou empirical research found that the use of simple linear equations constructed private financial interest factors model,its fit ness is not high,and the variable did not pass inspection.Then the model is improved using the Cobb-Dauglas production function and empirical studies are given to the same data.Results show that the indicators have improved.Conclu-sion shows that private finance is mainly affected by high rates of formal financial institutions lending and loan balances,and it is not a simple linear way,but the form of C-D production function.