民间金融的利率期限结构和风险分析:来自标会的检验

摘要

摘 　要:本文根据标会的内在机制分析了标会参与者的现金流特征 ,提出了运用折扣率分析法和比较分析法研究标会参与者盈亏状况的模型和估计标会利率期限结构的模型 ,并提出相应的可验证性假设。为了对这些假设进行验证 ,本文使用了东南沿海某个民间金融十分发达地方的某些成功的标会案例数据。实证检验的结果基本上都证实了理论分析提出的假设 ,文章在此基础上提出了一些规范和发展民间金融的建议。Abstract :Based on the analysisof the internal mechanismof ROSCA (Rotating Savings and Credit Association) , the paper examines the cashflow distributionsof participants andpropose a model to test the payoff of participants by discount rate analysis and comparative analysis. The paper also sets up a model to estimate the term structure of interest rate and put forward some testable hypothesis. While the authors use some successful cases of folk financingfrom acounty in Southeastern China to test such hypothesis. The empirical results confirm the hypothesis to a large degree. In the end, some suggestions and ideason how to regulate and develop folkfinance in China are put forward.