中国出口技术复杂度的演进机理——四部门模型及对出口产品的实证检验

摘要

本文将金融发展纳入出口技术复杂度的演进动因中，构建了一个解释其演进机理的四部门模型，并对1996-2006年中国出口美国的131种典型产品进行了产品层面和出口技术复杂度演进机理的实证检验。结果发现，中国出口产品技术水平的推动因素逐渐转变为熟练劳动力、利率机制、国内各部门的效率水平以及国外因素，其中外国服务资本价格和外国贷款利率的作用在增大，非本土劳动力因素对出口复杂度较高的产品影响程度较大。%This paper constructs a four-sector model concerning its evolution, then it conducts an empirical analysis on the evolutionary mechanism of sophistication on 131 categories of China＇s export products to the US during 1996-2006 respectively. The results show that the factors driving the technical level of China＇s export products gradually turn to skilled labor force, mechanism of interest rate, domestic department efficiency and foreign factors, among which the effect of price of foreign capital in service and foreign loan rate is growing. Factors other than domestic labor have a greater impact on products with higher export sophistication.