消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数“倒挂”之谜∗

摘要

Abstract The consumer price index (CPI)and the producer price index (PPI)are the two most important price indices in China.Generally speaking,CPI and PPI should be synchronized.However,since 2000,there have been many “upside down”phenomenon about CPI and PPI,which undoubtedly has brought challenges to judging the current situation of economic inflation.The seasonal trend of China's CPI and PPI index was adjusted by using the latest X-13-ARIMA-SEATS method. Based on the spectral analysis,the trend-cycle factors were decomposed by BK filtering method to obtain the trend factor and cycle factor.The study found that the economic cycle led to the “upside down”phenomenon.%消费者价格指数(Consumer Price Index,CPI)与生产者价格指数(Producer Price Index,PPI)是我国最重要的两个价格指数,一般说来,CPI 与 PPI 应当是同步变化的。但是自2000年以来,CPI 与 PPI出现了多次“倒挂”现象,这无疑对当前经济通胀情况的判断带来了挑战。采用最新的 X-13-ARIMA-SEATS 方法对我国的 CPI 与 PPI 指数进行季节调整；在谱分析的基础上采用 BK 滤波方法将其趋势-循环因素进行分解得到趋势因素与循环因素。研究后发现是经济周期导致了“倒挂”现象。