确权和调整化解了农地纠纷吗?——基于7省村级层面数据的实证分析

摘要

This paper applies a negative binomial regression model to examine the impact of rural land rights confirmation and land adjustment on land disputes,based on the field survey data from 190villages of seven prov-inces respectively located in eastern,middle and western China.The results indicate that:(1)Although the rural land rights confirmation clarifies land property right and endows farmers with adequate and stable functions,it also triggers the long-term remaining various land ownership disputes.(2)Land adjustment relieves the contradiction between farmers and land to some extent,but it also results in unstable contracted right disputes.(3)Among oth-er control variables,disputes-solving capacity significantly inhibit the incidence of new disputes,arable land per ca-pita and average age of household heads have significant and positive effects on land disputes,besides,villages in middle and western area have higher incidence of land disputes.Then some suggestions are provided that first given rural land rights confirmation could trigger land disputes,on one hand a rational reference timing of land right con-firmation should be confirmed in case of arousing disputes,and on the other hand,the mode of"right and share confirmation without identifying the land"could be explored in order to effectively avoid the risk.Second,enhan-cing the constant land contracted relationship to guarantee farmers' stable property right.And intensifying land policy advocacy to improve village cadres'and farmers' legal awareness.Third,constructing diversified land dis-putes resolution mechanism and improving the relative handle capacities to timely eradicate the hidden peril.%基于2015年对全国东、中、西部7省190个村庄的调查数据,运用负二项回归模型实证分析了新一轮土地确权及土地调整对农村土地纠纷的影响.研究表明:(1)土地确权在明晰农地产权、赋予农民权能的同时,也显化了农村长久以来的历史遗留问题,激发农民解决各种土地权属争议的诉求,引发矛盾与纠纷;(2)土地调整虽在一定程度上缓解了村庄人地资源配置不均的矛盾,但带来的农地产权不稳定也易引发利益、权属等纠纷;(3)村庄的纠纷调处能力对土地纠纷有明显的抑制作用,人均耕地资源越多、户主平均年龄越高发生土地纠纷的可能性越高,位于中、西部地区的村庄土地纠纷发生的概率显著高于东部.由此提出政策建议:第一,鉴于土地确权有激发纠纷的风险,各地在确权过程中应有效规避风险:一方面不搞"一刀切",因地制宜科学合理地确定确权时点,另一方面在土地关系复杂、矛盾较多、确地难度大的地区,尝试探索"确权确股不确地"模式.第二,保障农村地权稳定,落实土地承包关系长久不变,同时加强政策宣传,提高村干部和农民维法意识.第三,构建多元化农地纠纷解决机制,提高各方应对和调处纠纷的能力,及时根除纠纷隐患.