基于任务可用度的不完全可修系统任务成功性评估模型

摘要

It is difficult to build the multi-stage mission system modeling due to the complex structure of equipment,limited system repair capability and system-level multi subtasks.The problem can be dealt with as follows:Firstly,tasks at each level of the system are defined,and based on METRIC, the mission availability is regarded as index to build mission success model of incomplete repair sys-tem.Secondly,mission availability changes in different stages are analyzed by examples and the trend of curve is consistent with the actual situation.Finally,the result is testified by combining the dis-crete event modeling with Monte Carlo simulation method.The simulation results are in agreement with the analytical results.%针对装备结构复杂、系统对备件修复能力有限、系统子任务层次多、复杂任务系统成功性建模难的问题，首先对任务系统下的各层级任务进行定义，根据各层级任务间的逻辑关系，以任务可用度为保障指标，基于METRIC理论建立了不完全修复系统任务成功性模型；然后，分析了优化后的备件方案下系统任务可用度在不同阶段任务的变化，其走势与实际情况基本相符；最后，通过离散事件建模与蒙特卡洛仿真相结合的方法对模型进行了验证，仿真结果与解析结果基本一致。