基于改进GM(1,1)模型的T/R组件故障率预测

摘要

To deal with the problems of traditional grey model GM(1,1)in practical operation,a dis-crete grey model is established based on the original model at first.And then the optimization factor is introduced to optimize the background value and the linear form of the prediction model is added,and an improved discrete grey model of linear regression is proposed.Finally,an example is simulated and compared with the model.The results show that the method proposed is simple with higher accuracy and a wider range of application.%针对传统灰色模型 GM(1,1)在实际应用中出现的问题,首先对原模型的基础上进行了改进,建立了离散灰色模型;然后,引入优化因子对背景值进行了优化,并增加了预测模型的线性形式,提出了线性回归的改进离散灰色模型;最后,通过实例进行了仿真和模型对比分析.结果表明:文中所提出的方法具有更高的精度且求解简便,适用范围更广.