含有微分方程模型的事故路段通行能力分析

摘要

The paper intends to establish vehicle queuing models with the knowledge of differential equations and probability: counting traffic data, defining the basic capacity, and describing the changes. It also analyzes the effects of occupying different lanes on the actual capacity from the two aspects of traffic and speed distri-bution. The use of second level theory gives the definition of equivalent queue length and the establishment of differential equations. Through the probability model of changing lane, scaling parameters are obtained, result-ing in an ideal situation and stochastic simulation results.%运用微分方程和概率的相关知识建立车辆排队的模型，统计车流量数据，定义基本通行能力，描述其变化；从车流、车速分布两个角度分析占用车道不同对实际通行能力的影响；利用二流理论给出当量排队长度的定义，并建立微分方程；通过变道概率模型求得比例参数，从而得到了理想情况和随机模拟的结果。