东盟贸易对广西经济增长影响的实证分析

摘要

选取2009—2011年广西对外贸易和广西GDP的时间序列数据，经过基于VAR模型的协整分析、脉冲响应分析和方差分解的有机结合进行研究，发现这些序列间存在长期均衡关系。实证结果表明：首先广西对外贸易的变化对广西的经济增长产生影响，呈现出正相关的关系；其次，广西对东盟的进口与出口均对广西经济增长有显著的正向促进作用，广西对东盟的进口比对东盟的出口有更大的影响；广西向东盟的出口对经济增长的影响远高于对美国与对欧洲的出口产生的影响。%Based on the selected time series data of Guangxi% foreign trades and GDP from 2009 to 2011 ,the article conducted a VAR model-based study on the organic combination of co-integration analysis,impulse response analysis and variance decomposition,and found that there existed long-term balance relationships between those series data. The empirical results show： Firstly,the changes in Guangxi＇s foreign trades affect Guangxi＇s economic growth,showing positive correlation. Secondly,GuangxFs imports and exports to ASEAN turns out to be positive for Guangxi＇s economic growth. The impact of Guangxi＇s imports to ASEAN exceed that of Guangxi＇s exports to ASEAN. Lastly, Guangxi＇s exports to ASEAN has far greater impact on Guangxi＇s economic growth than those of America＇s exports to Europe.