应用灰色动态GM（1，1）数学模型进行临床血液采集量预测

摘要

目的探讨应用灰色动态 GM（1，1）模型，分析和预测常态下承德市中心血站血液品种采集数量的动态发展变化趋势，根据模型的应用效果做出定量预测。方法根据承德市中心血站2004年1月～2013年12月的全血（400 ml）（人次）、单采少白血小板（人份）血液品种年采集数据，将2013年预测值与实际值比较，检验模型的预测能力，同时分析2014～2016年血液采集数量。结果以上两类血液采集品种数量灰色动态 GM（1，1）模型的 Y（t）后验差比（均方差）C均＜0.35，小误差概率P值均为1。精度均为优，用于血液采集量预测的效果好。结论承德市中心血站以上两类血液采集品种数量呈逐渐增高趋势。灰色系统一阶模型 GM（1，1）作为一种新型预测模型，能够在常态下合理预测采供血系统血液采集量。%Objective To explore the application of dynamic grey GM (1,1)modeling,analyse and forecast varieties of blood collection volume for central blood bank of Chengde in Hebei Province,under normal dynamic development trends,and make quantitative predictions according to the model’s application.Methods According to the blood collection data of whole blood,single white blood platelet (person-portion)in the blood Bank of Chengde city fom January 2004 to December 2013 (400 ml/people),and in order to test predictive ability of the model by comparing the forecast value with the actual value in 2013.At the same time,analysed blood collection value in 2014 to 2016.Results The above two types of blood collection number grey GM (1,1)model Y (t)posterior difference (standard deviation)C<0.35,small error probability P was 1.Ac-curacy was excellent,good for prediction of blood collection.Conclusion These two categories of blood collecting species in Central Blood Bank of Chengde increased gradually.Grey model GM (1,1)as a new prediction model can forecast reasonably clinical blood collection volume under normal lynamic development trends.