This paper uses the data of per - capita GDP of Hubei province from 1978 to 2010 to set up three fitting models, and determines that ARMA model is the best according to a series of prediction precision indexes. Moreover, it chooses the data of 2008, 2009 and 2010 to test the effect of this model's forecast, which shows satisfactory result. In addition, the percapita GDP of Hubei province of 2011 and 2012 is forecast by using this model.%该文以湖北省1987-2010年的人均GDP时间序列数据建立了3种时间序列预测模型,然后通过一系列预测精度指标对比分析,选出ARMA模型为最优预测模型。并以2008—2010年的数据作为检验数据对其预测效果进行了检验,证实了其预测效果非常理想,最后对湖北省2011年和2012年人均GDP值进行了短期外推预测。
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