CAPPS3模式在福州市预报效果检验

摘要

Forecasting results from a city air pollution numerical prediction system（CAPPS3） mode were validated in Fuzhou for a period of July 2009 to June 2010.The prediction accuracy of pollution level of SO2,NO2 and PM10,the prediction accuracy of transitional weather,correlation coefficient between forecasting value and observational value and synthesis scoring were analyzed in different seasons.The results show that the prediction accuracy of pollution level based on the CAPPS3 mode is higher in summer and autumn for three pollutants,while it is lower in winter for NO2 and in spring for PM10 and the pollution level of most error prediction is higher.The prediction accuracy of transitional weather is higher in summer and autumn and lower in spring.The CAPPS3 mode is insensitive to change of weather conditions.The prediction ability of the CAPPS3 mode is lower when pollutants concentrations change abruptly,while it is higher under stable weather conditions.The forecasting values of pollutants concentrations based on the CAPPS3 are higher than the observational values and lag behind the reality.The correlation coefficient between forecasting values and observational values and synthesis scoring are higher in summer and autumn and lower in spring.In general,forecasting results of the CAPPS3 mode are reasonable.Thus,the mode could provide valuable prediction and is suitable for use in the operational system.%对2009年7月至2010年6月区域空气质量数值预报模式CAPPS3在福州市的应用进行效果检验,分析各季节CAPPS3预报福州市3种污染物SO2、NO2和PM10的等级预报准确率、转折性天气预报准确率及与监测值的相关系数以及综合评分。结果表明：夏秋季节CAPPS3模式3种污染物等级预报准确率较高,冬季NO2和春季PM10的等级预报准确率较低,错误等级预报多数偏高;转折性天气预报准确率夏秋季最高,春季最低,模式对天气形势的变化反应不灵敏,特别是污染物浓度突变时,预报能力较差,当天气形势稳定时,预报效果较好;CAPPS3模式浓度预报值较监测值有偏大和滞后的缺点;相关系数及综合评分结果夏秋季最高,春季最低。CAPPS3总体预报效果较好,可提供有价值的指导预报,适合业务运行。