首页> 外文期刊>Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions >Joint impact of rainfall and tidal level on flood risk in a coastal city with a complex river network: a case study of Fuzhou City, China
【24h】

Joint impact of rainfall and tidal level on flood risk in a coastal city with a complex river network: a case study of Fuzhou City, China

机译:沿海城市沿海城市洪水风险的降雨量和潮汐水平的联合影响 - 以福州市,福州市案例研究

获取原文
       

摘要

Coastal cities are particularly vulnerable to flood under multivariable conditions, such as heavy precipitation, high sea levels, and storms. The combined effect of multiple sources and the joint probability of extremes should be considered to assess and manage flood risk better. This paper aims to study the combined effect of rainfall and the tidal level of the receiving water body on flood probability and severity in Fuzhou City, which has a complex river network. Flood severity under a range of precipitation intensities, with return periods (RPs) of 5 yr to 100 yr, and tidal levels was assessed through a hydrodynamic model verified by data observed during Typhoon Longwang in 2005. According to the percentages of the river network where flooding occurred, the threshold conditions for flood severity were estimated in two scenarios: with and without working pumps. In Fuzhou City, working pumps efficiently reduce flood risk from precipitation within a 20-yr RP. However, the pumps may not work efficiently when rainfall exceeds a 100-yr RP because of the limited conveyance capacity of the river network. Joint risk probability was estimated through the optimal copula. The joint probability of rainfall and tidal level both exceeding their threshold values is very low, and the greatest threat in Fuzhou comes from heavy rainfall. However, the tidal level poses an extra risk of flood. Given that this extra risk is ignored in the design of flood defense in Fuzhou, flood frequency and severity may be higher than understood during design.
机译:沿海城市特别容易受到多变量条件下的洪水,如沉重的降水,高海平面和风暴。应考虑多种来源的综合效应和极端的关节概率评估和管理洪水风险。本文旨在研究福州市洪水概率和严重程度的降雨和潮汐水平的综合影响,拥有复杂的河流网络。在一系列降水强度下的洪水严重程度,返回期(rps)为5 yr到100 yr,并且通过在2005年在台风龙旺期间观察到的数据验证的流体动力学模型来评估潮汐水平。根据河流网络的百分比发生洪水,估计洪水严重程度的阈值条件有两种情况:无效泵。在福州市,工作泵有效地降低了20毫克RP的降水量。然而,由于河网的运输能力有限,泵可能无法有效地工作。通过最佳的副本估计联合风险概率。超过其阈值的降雨和潮汐层的联合概率非常低,福州最大的威胁来自大雨。然而,潮气级别构成了额外的洪水风险。鉴于在福州防洪设计中忽略了这种额外风险,洪水频率和严重程度可能高于设计期间的理解。

著录项

获取原文

客服邮箱:kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备:11010802029741号 ICP备案号:京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有
  • 客服微信

  • 服务号