吉林省重大暴雨过程影响损失评估模型的建立

摘要

利用1961-2012年吉林省逐日降水资料、暴雨灾情资料、逐年GDP和人口资料采用灰色关联度分析方法建立重大暴雨过程指数及灾损指数，利用相关分析法对重大暴雨过程造成损失的影响因素进行探讨，采用多元回归法建立重大暴雨过程影响损失评估模型，并进行拟合和试评估检验。结果表明：吉林省重大暴雨过程造成的损失与前7d雨量及重大暴雨过程指数相关显著；利用前7d雨量和重大暴雨过程指数建立的影响损失评估模型拟合和试评估效果均较好，可在实际业务中应用；由于在重大暴雨过程发生前，评估因子就可获得，因此，可以对其灾害损失进行定量预评估，在实际业务中指导意义较大。%Based on daily precipitation data,rainstorm disaster data,annual GDP data and population data from 1961 to 2012 in Jilin province,a heavy rainstorm process index and a disaster loss index were established by a grey correlative degree analysis method.The influence factors of loss caused by the heavy rainstorm process were dis-cussed using a correlation analysis method.A loss evaluation model of heavy rainstorm was established by a multi-variate regression method,and its fitting and evaluate test were carried out.The results show that losses caused by the heavy rainstorm process in Jilin province have significant correlations with rainfall during the previous 7 days of the heavy rainstorm and the heavy rainstorm process index.The above two factors are used to establish a loss e-valuation model of heavy rainstorm,and it has better effect of fitting and evaluation test.Thus,this model can be applied in operational business.The evaluation factors could be obtained before a heavy rainstorm occurs,so disas-ter loss could be predicted in advance,which is important for operational business.