NCAR MM 模式对天津市夏季大气臭氧敏感性分析

摘要

A validated model of NCAR Master Mechanism (MM)can well simulate concentration of ozone (O3 ). Summer O3 was simulated by the NCAR MM in 2009 in Tianjin,and variation of daily maximum volume fraction was illustrated by the model.The results indicate that O3 volume fraction will decrease by 5% if NOX volume frac-tion increases by 10% under the current pollution condition,while O3 volume fraction will increase by 4% if NOX volume fraction decreases by 10%.O3 volume fraction reaches the maximum value when NOX volume fraction is equal to 60% of observed value.O3 volume fraction will decrease by 4% if non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHC) volume fraction decreases by 10%.Among all components of NMHC,Alkenes contribute to reducing O3 concen-tration and account for 53.3% of the total,following aromatics (35.1%)and Alkanes (9.2%),while halo-hy-drocarbons and oxygenates only contribute 2%.Therefore,the concentration of O3 in urban area of Tianjin is con-trolled by NMHC in summer and the most effective way to reduce concentration of O3 is decreasing or controlling the emission of alkenes such as propylene and butane etc..%NCAR MM 模式可较好再现 O3体积分数（φO3）的变化，本文利用 NCAR MM 模式对2009年天津市夏季大气臭氧进行了模拟分析，并利用模式绘制了 O3日最大体积分数变化图。结果表明：在当前污染水平下，NOX 体积分数（φNOX ）每增加10.0％，φO3将降低约5.0％；φNOX每降低10.0％，φO3将升高4.0％；当φNOX为观测值的60.0％时，φO3达最大值。非甲烷有机化合物 NMHC 体积分数每减少10.0％，φO3将降低4.0％。NMHC 各组分中，烯烃对 O3生成的贡献最大，占总贡献的53.3％；其次为芳香烃，占总贡献的35.1％；再次为烷烃，占总贡献的9.2％，卤代烃和含氧烃对 O3的贡献率仅为2.0％。天津市夏季城区 O3处于 NMHC 控制区，φO3对 NMHC 更敏感，控制含丙烯和丁烯等烯烃的排放可有效控制天津地区夏季 O3的体积分数。