TJ-WRF 模式对天津地区暴雨和台风个例亮温检验

摘要

The performance of Tianjing meso-scale numerical weather prediction system was evaluated using a syn-thetic brightness temperature model.The model initial and forecasting fields produced by this system for the two torrential rainstorm cases in Tianjin on July 21,and 25,2012 and one typhoon case on August 3 to 4,2012 were e-valuated in terms of a comparison of the modelled brightness temperatures with satellite observations.The results show that the simulated brightness temperature is generally higher than the satellite observations for the cloudy are-a.This discrepancy is identified to be due to relatively weaker convection and lower modelled cloud top.The simu-lated brightness temperature is also higher than the real situation for the cloud-free area due to the relatively higher surface temperature.In contrast,however,the typhoon track is well simulated by model and the location of typhoon center simulated by model is closer to the real position.%利用辐射亮温模式对天津地区中尺度预报模式的预报效果进行了检验，分别计算了2012年7月21日和25日天津地区的暴雨过程、8月3—4日台风过程的初始场及预报场的云顶亮温，并与实时卫星观测的亮温进行了比较。结果表明：在有云的区域，TJ-WRF 模式模拟的亮温比卫星实况观测的亮温偏高，模式模拟的云覆盖范围偏小，表明天津地区数值预报模式模拟的对流强度偏弱，云未发展到应有的高度；在晴空区域，TJ-WRF 模式模拟的亮温也比实况偏高，说明模式模拟的地面温度偏高。TJ-WRF 模式对台风路径的模拟效果较好，且模拟的台风中心位置与实况较一致。