鲁西南木本植物生长季及物候期持续日数对气候变暖的响应

摘要

以1981—2010年中国鲁西南地区的植物为研究对象，采用统计分析法研究7种木本植物生长季与物候期的持续日数对气候变暖的响应。结果表明：1981—2010年中国鲁西南地区气温呈极显著上升的趋势（P＜0.01），随着气候变暖，木本植物春季物候期间隔缩短，秋季物候期间隔延长，全生长季延长，且全生长季变化趋势比各物候持续期变化趋势明显。展叶持续期主要与上月、当月和持续月平均气温呈负相关，其中梧桐展叶持续期与当月平均气温呈极显著负相关（P＜0.0 1）；旱柳和刺槐开花持续期与持续月平均气温呈显著正相关（P＜0.05）；叶变色持续期和落叶持续期与上月、当月、结束月和持续月平均气温呈正相关，其中旱柳与平均气温达显著正相关（P＜0.05）。木本植物全生长季与气温呈正相关，其中旱柳生长季变化对气候变暖的响应最敏感，其次为榆树、梧桐和楝树生长季变化对气候变暖的响应较敏感。随着年平均气温每升高1℃，植物生长季延长3.0—20.0 d；年平均最高气温每升高1℃，生长季延长5.0—14.0 d；年平均最低气温每升高1℃，生长季延长2.0—18.0 d。%The response patterns of growing period and phenological period duration of 7 woody species to climate warming in southwestern Shandong province were analyzed using a statistical analysis method.The results show that the temperature is in a significantly increasing trend(P<0. 01).Under the conditions of climate warming,the spring phenological period interval of woody plants is shortened;the autumn phonological period interval is pro-longed,so is growing period.Growing period is obviously longer than phenological period duration.The duration of leaf expansion is negatively correlated with temperature of last month and this month as well as subsequent monthly mean temperature.Correlation between duration of leaf expansion of Firmiana simplex and temperature of current month is significantly negative(P<0. 01),while correlation between duration of flowering of Salix matsu-dana and Robinia pseudoacacia,and subsequent monthly mean temperature is positive(P<0. 05 ).The duration of leaf color changing and leaf falling is positively correlated with temperatures of last month and current month as well as ending month,and subsequent monthly mean temperature.Among them,the significant correlation between Salix matsudana and the temperature is also found (P<0. 05 ).The growing period of woody plant is positively correlated with temperature,and the growing period of Salix matsudana is more sensitive to climate warming,fol-lowing by those of Ulmus pumila,Firmiana simplex and Melia azedarach,The plant growing periods will be pro-longed 3. 0-20. 0 days,5. 0-14. 0 days and 2. 0-18. 0 days when annual mean temperature,annual mean maximum temperature and annual mean minimum temperature increase by 1 ℃,respectively.