基于TIGGE资料中的中国气象局、欧洲中期天气预报中心、日本气象厅和英国气象局等四个中心的2009年5月1日-8月31日台风预报资料,利用多模式集合平均、消除偏差集合平均和加权消除偏差集合平均等方法,对2009年8月1-31日预报期的西太平洋的台风路径和强度(中心气压)进行24～ 72 h预报时效的多模式集成预报,并对0907号台风“天鹅”和0908号台风“莫拉克”进行个例分析.结果表明:各中心对于不同时效的预报,预报技巧有明显差异.消除偏差集合平均与加权消除偏差集合平均显著地减小了预报误差,预报效果优于最好的单个中心预报和多模式集合平均.对于24 ～ 72 h预报,加权消除偏差集合平均方法始终表现出最好的预报性能.%Based on the ensemble forecasts of China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and UK Met Office in the TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) datasets during the period from 1 May until 31 August 2009, 24 - 72 h multimodel ensemble forecasts of the typhoon track and intensity ( central pressure) for the forecast period from 1 to 31 August 2009 have been conducted by using the weighted bias-removed ensemble mean (WEM), the multimodel ensemble mean (EMN), and the bias-removed ensemble mean (BREM). Typhoon "Goni" (No. 0907)and "Marokot" (No.0908) are chosen for case study. The results show that forecast skills of these four models of different operational forecast centers are quite different for 24 -72 h forecast. The WEM and BREM reduce the forecast errors considerably. Both methods show an improvement of the forecast skill over the best single model forecast and EMN. The WEM shows the best forecast skills in terms of the 24 - 72 h forecasts of the typhoon track and intensity over the western Pacific.
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