本文将汇率波动、国内外经济景气状况与中央企业增长绩效置于统一的框架中, 基于随机波动时变参数向量自回归 (SV?TVP?VAR) 模型研究了各因素对中央企业增长绩效的动态作用机制.结论认为: (1) 随着汇率波动幅度扩大, 人民币汇率波动对中央企业增长绩效的冲击效应逐渐增大, 国内经济增长对中央企业增长绩效具有显著的提升作用, 国外经济景气变动对中央企业增长绩效的影响微弱; (2) 汇率升值和汇率贬值对中央企业增长绩效的影响具有典型的非对称特征, 与汇率贬值对央企增长绩效的促进效应相比, 汇率升值对央企增长绩效的抑制作用更为显著; (3) 汇率升值对中央企业增长绩效负向冲击的持续期较短, 国内经济回落对央企增长绩效呈现持续期较长的"V"型影响, 相比之下, 国外经济下滑对中央企业增长绩效冲击的作用期较短.%This paper, by using the stochastic volatility time-varying parameter vector autoregressive model, and including the exchange rate fluctuations, the domestic and foreign economic prosperity and the growth performance of central enterprises into a framework, makes a study of the effects of the dynamic mechanism of the above factors on the growth performance of central enterprises.The findings are, firstly, with the expansion of exchange rate fluctuation range, agradual increase is seen in the impacts of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the growth performance of central enterprises.While the domestic economic growth has a significant promotional effect on the growth performance of the central enterprises, the impacts of foreign economic prosperity on them is considerably weak.Secondly, there exists a typical asymmetric feature of the impacts of exchange rate appreciation and depreciation on the growth performance of central enterprises.Compared with the promotional effects of the exchange rate depreciation on the growth performance of central enterprises, the prohibitive impacts of the exchange rate appreciation on their growth performance are more significant.And thirdly, the negative shock brought about by exchange rate appreciation to the growth performance of central enterprises is short in duration, i.e.while the Domestic economic downturn has a long and'V'shape impact on it, the impact of foreign economic downturn on the growth performance of central enterprises is relatively weak and short by contrast.
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