结构性理财产品预期收益率实证分析--以招商银行焦点联动系列之104248为例

摘要

In recent years , structural financial product is popular in the market of financial products because of its high expected return .However , the complicated terms of returns to be realized , as well as the commercial banks’ emphasis on the possible benefits , have been the obstacle for ordinary investors to make sure of the actual income of these products .The article adopts the Monte Carlo simulation to conduct an empirical study of a structur-al financial products launched by China Merchants Bank ( code:104238 ) .The results show that the severe condi-tion which allows the product only has the probability of 51 .6% to achieve the greatest possible return , investors may overestimate the expected return of the product .%近年来，结构性理财产品因其远高于活期利率的最大可能预期收益率而在理财产品市场走俏．然而，其收益实现的复杂条款，以及商业银行对最大可能收益的过分强调，对普通投资者确定产品实际收益情况造成了障碍．文章采用Monte Carlo模拟的方法，对中国招商银行焦点联动系列之股票指数表现联动理财产品进行定价的实证研究．结果表明，严苛的收益条件使得该产品达到最大可能收益的概率仅有51．6％，投资者可能高估该产品的预期收益率．