俄资与中俄进出口关系的实证分析研究

摘要

俄罗斯是我国非常重要的全面战略协作伙伴之一,两国经贸发展不断深入且双向投资关系日益深化.但与两国进出口贸易相比,俄罗斯对中国的直接投资是滞后的.为发展中俄长久以来的密切合作关系以及促进两国进出口贸易的升级,对俄资对华投资额与中国对俄进出口贸易额的关系进行分析研究是很有必要的.以1997年~2015年的经济变量数据为样本,利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等实证方法对俄对华投资额与中俄进出口贸易额的关系进行实证分析.结论显示:它们之间有着正向的协整关系,且俄对华投资能带动中国对俄罗斯的出口;中国对俄罗斯的进口能促进俄对华的投资.最后,根据实证分析研究的结果提出相应建议.%The economic and trade development between China and Russia, China′s very important overall strategic partner, has expanded steadily in recent years and the bilateral investments have increased constantly.However, compared with the import and export trade scale between the two countries, Russia′s direct investment in China is slow and lags behind.In order to maintain Sino-Russian everlasting and close relationship and uncourageously upgrade the mutual import and export trade, the article makes an in-depth analysis of the relationship between Russian investment in China and China′s import and export trade volume in Russia.Using 1997-2015 economic variable data as the sample to conduct a co-integrating test, and applying Granger causality test and other measuring methods, the article analyzes the relationship between Russia′s investment in China and the volume of Sino-Russian import and export trade, and has reached the conclusion that there is a positive co-integrating relationship between them, and further more, the Russia′s investment in China can revive China′s exports to Russia and China′s imports from Russia can promote Russia′s investment in China.Finally, some suggestions are given according to the empirical results of the theoretical analysis.