基于系统动力学的工程项目目标控制

摘要

针对工程项目目标控制问题，通过德尔菲法确定工程项目目标控制的主要影响因素，基于系统动力学反馈与仿真分析理论建立了工程项目目标控制系统动力学模型。采用专家打分法确定参数，利用Vensim软件对模型进行模拟演化和算例分析，讨论不同策略和策略组合的工程项目目标控制效果，最终得到基于算例工程的理想方案为0时增加人工8人，0时加班1 d，管理费水平为3。采用该方案，该工程的完工时间提前47.2%，质量下降2.0%，费用上升6.7%。通过不同策略和策略组合的效果比较，得出结论：加班宜尽量少用，尤其要避免连续加班；尽量避免无效管理费用支出，但对于可以带来管理水平提高的管理费用支出宜适量增加；增加人工越早越好。%To address the problems in engineering project target control, a system dynamics model of engineering project tar-get control was establised, The main factors to control the project are determined through the Delphi method based on the system dy-namics feedback and simulation analysis theory. Then the expert scoring method is used to determine the parameters and vesim soft-ware applied to simulated evolution and case example analysis of tre model. The effect of engineering project target control for dif-ferent strategies and strategies combinations is discussed. The ideal solution is finally obtained for the case example is to increase eight workers at zero and to have workers work overtime one day at zero with the third level of management fee. The outcome of the solution is that the project is finished 43%ahead of time, the quality declines by 2%, and the cost rises by 6.7%. By comparing the effects of different strategies and strategy combinations, the conclusion can be drawn as follows:try not to work overtime and avoid consecutive overtime working in particular;try to avoid ineffective management expenses and encourage to increase management ex-penses, which can improve the management level appropriately;increase labors if needed and the sooner the better.