中国与东盟地区双边水果产品贸易潜力的分析

摘要

本文利用2001-2011年中国与10个东盟成员国之间双边水果产品的面板数据，构建引力模型，实证分析广西水果产品出口流量增长的决定因素，进一步测算我国的贸易潜力。十国中大多数国家的实际双边贸易额与理论模拟双边贸易额的比值为1.20-0.80，属于潜力开拓性，这就需要通过一系列的政策措施来推进中国与东盟地区的水果产品的出口。%The author use fruit products trade panel data which is bilateral data from 2001 to 2011 be-tween Guangxi and the 10 ASEAN members. The author build the gravity model, and make the empirical analysis of determinants of traffic growth on Guangxi's fruit export, further, estimates the potential trade in our country. Most countries of the bilateral trade volume ratio is fromn1.20 to 0.80, which belongs to the potential pioneering. We have to do is making a series of policies and measures to promote fruit products exports between Guangxi and the ASEAN region.